Connecting the dots: The Great March Heat Wave and ... climate

I had a brief conversation recently with a couple of friends, both committed, long-standing environmentalists. Both were hesitant to ascribe the extraordinary heat wave we are currently experiencing here in Vermont (and that is being felt as far west as the Dakotas) to global warming.

I told them there was no doubt in my mind about the connection.  For the record (as it were), here's why:

The temperatures have been extraordinary, far outside the realm of previous temperature ranges in our region.  Sunday's high here was 80 degrees F, breaking the old high record by 16 degrees.  Monday the temperature was 79, breaking the old record by 20 degrees.  Tuesday, 80, 13 degrees above the old record.  Wednesday 81, 10 degrees above the old record.  This is just a remarkable run of extreme temperatures. (Today, 84, 11 degrees above the old record--five straight days in which the previous high has been broken by double digits.)

The new high temperature records here and elsewhere across the U.S. dovetail with a pattern that has developed over the past four decades, in which the ratio of new highs to new lows is steadily increasing.  This pattern is detailed in two graphics, one from the blog Capital Climate and one from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) that have been reproduced in two excellent articles at another blog, Climate Progress (see March Madness: This may be an unprecedented event since modern U.S. weather records began in the late 19th Century, March 22, 2012, and Record highs far outpace record lows across U.S., Feb. 11, 2010).  The articles are well worth reading and highly recommended for the detail they provide, but here is a quick summary:

Article 1, from February 2010, includes the UCAR graphic, which shows the ratio of new high records to new low records across the U.S.  If the climate were not changing, one would expect the ratio to vary around 1:1.  Instead, what is actually happening is that the ratio is increasing, and some really wild excursions are taking place.  According to the UCAR graphic, the ratios (new highs to new lows) for recent decades look like this:

1950s: 1.09 to 1
1960s: 0.77 to 1
1970s: 0.78 to 1
1980s: 1.14 to 1
1990s: 1.36 to 1
2000s: 2.04 to 1

Article 2, the "March Madness" article from today, includes the Capital Climate graphic, with the monthly ratios for 2011 and 2012: 22 to 1 for August 2011, 22 to 1 for January 2012, and 35 to 1 to date for March 2012.  That makes three extraordinary heat waves in the past eight months.




I wish I could say the news is going to get better, but I don't think it is--to me (non-scientist), it looks like we are disturbing a previously stable system and the oscillations will get larger as long as we keep increasing the main input that is the source of the disturbance--the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The "March Madness" article also includes a brief video from The Weather Channel, featuring Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro.  Ostro, formerly skeptical of the findings of climate science, has become a convert in recent years as the weather has increasingly diverged from what's been normal in the past. In Ostro's words, "Something ain't right--it's not business as usual." Indeed.

Animal and plant species on the move

My latest letter to the editor (but one--the latest is yet to be printed, after which I'll post it here). Local papers offer an excellent opportunity for climate activism and education. The Valley News, for example, will basically print any letter of 350 words or less, and asks only that writers refrain from writing more than once every two weeks.  Pretty hard to beat.  The only defect is that they don't have a web version.

Letter to the Editor - Valley News (Lebanon, N.H.) - February 25, 2012 (Links added)

To the Editor:

A recent lengthy article ("Warm Winter Weather Has Wildlife, People Both Befuddled," Feb. 26) discussed the remarkably warm winter we are having, but failed to mention the obvious question of whether it is related to global warming.  In fact, the general tone was reassuring.  A conservation biologist was quoted as saying the unusual warmth could have "some short-term effects ... but it's not a huge concern in the long term."  Unfortunately, this is misleading, and here's why:

A study of some 1,400 plant and animal species, published in the journal Science in August 2011, found that on average, they are moving toward the poles (north in the northern hemisphere, south in the southern) at an average of 16-17 kilometers (10-11 miles) per decade, and that this pattern has persisted for at least the last 40 years.  Plants and animals are also migrating to higher elevations where that is possible, again apparently in response to a warming climate.  So, if you're befuddled or puzzled about spotting unusual wildlife or not seeing species you are used to seeing, that may well be why.

The article was a very good one as far as it went, but that wasn't far enough.  Please consider contacting one or two climate scientists the next time you are covering the topic of unusual weather.  Climate is the big picture, but inevitably it is going to affect our weather--as one well-known climate scientist, NASA's James Hansen, puts it, we are "loading the climate dice" in the direction of warmer and more extreme weather.

To those who are already concerned about this issue, I urge your support for Citizens' Climate Lobby and H.R. 3242, the Save Our Climate Act, which would tax carbon and return the proceeds to all Americans in the form of an annual dividend.

Thomas O. Gray