Can hydrogen fuel-cell autos compete with EVs? Nope.

Yesterday, two news items on the future of automobiles crossed my (Twitter) radar screen. One concerned Toyota's announcement that it intends to nearly phase out gasoline-powered autos entirely by 2050 and to replace them with hybrids and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles; the other, Volkswagen saying it hopes to recover from the Diesel Debacle by focusing on electric vehicles (EVs).

I passed both items on to my Facebook group, Climate Change-Global Warming Info, and an old friend pointed me to this analysis comparing prospects for the two classes of vehicle, which concludes that EVs are far superior.  It seems very well reasoned to me.

Much of the argument is based on the difference in infrastructure (think: many hundreds of billions of dollars) required.  I have an EV (see 'Take that, Exxon!', and I've been very impressed with the simplicity of owning it.  We installed an extra regular 110-volt outlet in our garage and just plug the car into it at night--what could be simpler?  In fact, it's even easier, not to mention cheaper, than stopping at a gas station.

Based on that experience, I think the argument that EVs will prevail is very compelling.

Climate tweets for 5 September 2014

China just got serious about global warming. Now we're really out of excuses: @motherjones:

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/china-climate-change-carbon-market 

At Least 39 Dead As Kashmir Hit with Worst Flooding In Decades:

http://thkpr.gs/3563674 

[India]

Chances are: 99.999% certainty humans driving global warming: new study: @ConversationEDU:
http://theconversation.com/99-999-certainty-humans-are-driving-global-warming-new-study-29911 
[science]

Cashing In On Carbon: How Taxpayer Dollars Greenwash Dirty Energy: @priceofoil:
http://priceofoil.org/2014/09/04/cashing-in-on-carbon-subsidy-spotlight/

Climate Change Creates Challenges for a Wilderness Pine Tree: @EarthFix:
http://earthfix.opb.org/flora-and-fauna/article/wilderness-creates-challenges-for-iconic-northwest/
[science, forests, whitebark pine]

As Aircraft Emissions Skyrocket, @EPA Looks Into Regulation for 1st Time:
http://thkpr.gs/3563670 

Canada Tops World In Forest Degradation Thanks to Climate Change, Logging, Energy Development:
http://thkpr.gs/3563762

NYC summit is chance to push for long-term climate neutrality: @CFigueres @guardian:
http://gu.com/p/4x7cq/tw
[Christiana Figueres]

Hank Paulson Starts Climate-Change Program to Fund Research: @BW:
http://buswk.co/1u6DUex
[Risky Business, Paulson Institute]

Cars in U.S are more fuel-efficient than ever--5 reasons why: @voxdotcom:
http://www.vox.com/2014/9/4/6107203/cars-in-the-us-are-more-fuel-efficient-than-ever-here-are-5-reasons
[transportation, automobiles, energy efficiency]

RT Anders Hedberg @anheepc:
Evidence suggests variability, not scarcity, primary driver of water conflict. @CntrClimSec:
http://climateandsecurity.org/2014/09/02/look-to-variability-not-just-scarcity-for-water-conflict-clues/ http://pic.twitter.com/ySkkuKrTsu
[flooding, drought]

RT Katharine Hayhoe @KHayhoe:
Our carbon emissions will dictate THEIR future #ParentsClimateChat Source: http://dels.nas.edu/materials/booklets/warming-world http://pic.twitter.com/qlKuQUS0RD
[science]

RT Katharine Hayhoe @KHayhoe:
Our choices today will determine our kids' future #ParentsClimateChat Source: http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/climatology-and-climate-change/economics-climate-change-stern-review http://pic.twitter.com/cVbs2ezHFh
[science]

Climate tweets for 27 August 2014

RT Leonardo DiCaprio @LeoDiCaprio:
Seeing the impacts of #TarSands first hand with @SierraClub was a wake up call. #CleanEnergy now! http://pic.twitter.com/OvTYsBwXxU

Climate Scientists Spell Out Stark Danger. Immorality Of Inaction In New Leaked Report:
http://thkpr.gs/1vnsu7Y
[IPCC, science]

Why Electric Vehicles Are Beating Hydrogen Cars Today:
http://thkpr.gs/1tCH1cS
[EV, transportation, fuel cells]

RT CitizensClimateLobby @citizensclimate:
Oh, crap: World’s Existing Power Plants Will Emit 300 Billion Tons Of CO2 In Their Lifetimes:
http://thkpr.gs/1tJPpHJ

Climate change may disrupt global food system w/i decade, @WorldBank says: @p_hannam @smh:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-may-disrupt-global-food-system-within-a-decade-world-bank-says-20140827-108w8x.html
[farming, agriculture, flooding, drought, water]

Obama Pursuing Climate Accord in Lieu of Treaty: @CoralMDavenport:
http://nyti.ms/1pEMccp

Full extent of global coal 'binge' is hidden: researchers: @BBCNews:
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28942403

Russia’s warming faster than rest of planet—disease, drought, forest fires result: @qz:
http://qz.com/256020
[wildfire, health]

Will Iconic Sequoias Fall to Climate Change?: @LiveScience:
http://shar.es/113RDu
[trees, forests, drought, water]

.@EDF plans climate vote pledge campaign in Colorado:
http://wapo.st/1lcJSZy  via @washingtonpost 

Iowa GOP Senate Nominee, Climate Change Denier Says Koch Network ‘Started My Trajectory’:
http://thkpr.gs/1tL7zc2
[denial, Joni Ernst, Americans for Prosperity, American Legislative Exchange Council, ALEC, Heritage Foundation, Tom Cotton, Cory Gardner, Marco Rubio, Mitch McConnell]

'Climate Change' and 'Global Warming': A pictorial history:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-global-warming.html 
… via @skepticscience 
[denial]

6 Ways @WashingtonPost Could Show It’s Serious About Climate Change: @climateprogress:
http://thkpr.gs/1vmb8Zl 
[journalism, George Will, Charles Krauthammer, Sarah Palin, Bjoern Lomborg, Fred Hiatt, Volokh Conspiracy, denial]

Climate tweets for 23 March 2014

.@VICE chases melting ice in Greenland: @Grist 
http://grist.org/climate-energy/vice-goes-to-greenland/ 
[journalism, sea level]

Global warming to hit Asia hardest, warns new report on climate change: @guardian http://gu.com/p/3nmqc/tw 
[sea level, water]

Tibet records rising temperatures, extreme weather: @XHNews
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-03/23/c_133207600.htm 
[China]

RT Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus: RT @dana1981: 
By hiring a climate disinformer, Nate Silver undermines his entire premise of data-driven journalism http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/23/1286213/-By-hiring-a-climate-disinformer-Nate-Silver-undermines-his-entire-premise-of-data-driven-journalism 

Scientists report record-early high CO2 readings at key site: @DailyCamera
http://www.dailycamera.com/news/boulder/ci_25397460/boulder-scientists-report-record-early-high-co2-readings 
[science]

RT CitizensClimateLobby ‏@citizensclimate  13h
Great post: The #1 factor that has allowed me to live car-free easily and pleasurably for 10 years 
http://ow.ly/uSlTf 
[transportation, cycling]

Siberian Heat Wave Is Breaking Kara Sea Ice in March:
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/a-siberian-heat-wave-is-breaking-kara-sea-ice-in-march-so-is-it-time-to-start-thinking-about-warm-arctic-rivers/ 
[Arctic, Russia]

Climate change worsening all aspects of life in China: leaked @IPCC report: @chinadialogue 
https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/6834-Climate-change-worsening-all-aspects-of-life-in-China-says-leaked-IPCC-report 

RT Stacy Clark ‏@Stacy__Clark:
I'm joining w/ alumni to support fossil fuel divestment at @skidmorecollege. Let's go fossil free! 
http://act.350.org/signup/GFF_Alumni/ 
[investing, divestment]

RT Bas Geerts ‏@Bas_Geerts
:-) “@Alex_Verbeek: Nice one! Berlin street art: "Politicians discussing global warming." 
http://pic.twitter.com/ubnY1jthA7

RT Dianah Mieglich ‏@DianahMieg
New IPCC climate report projects significant threats to Australia http://www.theage.com.au/national/new-ipcc-climate-report-projects-significant-threats-to-australia-20140323-35b1r.html 
[science]

Solar costs to halve as natural gas prices surge: Renew Economy http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/solar-costs-to-halve-as-gas-prices-surge-27907 
[renewable energy]

RT TckTckTck ‏@tcktcktck:
"We do not want to die" - parts of Brazil are running out of water due to climate change. Take #ClimateAction 
http://pic.twitter.com/7nnN0G1L3V
[drought]

Climate tweets for 10 March 2014

Angry Australian summers will just get madder, scientists warn: @smh http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/angry-summers-will-just-get-madder-scientists-warn-20140309-34fhr.html 

Senators will be up all night calling for climate action. Will you add your voice? http://act.350.org/sign/wake_up_congress/ … #Up4Climate

The Red Faces of the Solar Skeptics: @nytimes http://nyti.ms/1qoaGpn 

Public Transit Climate Shifting: Use In U.S. At 57-Year High, Report Finds: http://thkpr.gs/1loKEys 

RT Chris Riedy ‏@chrisjriedy: This @climatecouncil infographic captures it all. Another #AngrySummer of heat, fire & drought as Oz climate changes 
http://pic.twitter.com/WdcL3pdRhL

.@SenWhitehouse to lead 28 colleagues in marathon soliloquy on global warming: @projo http://shar.es/Rum2E 

RT Sheldon Whitehouse ‏@SenWhitehouse: Congress needs to wake up and take action on climate change. RT if you agree. #Up4Climate http://pic.twitter.com/sDADJAZ47y

RT Senator Harry Reid ‏@SenatorReid: It's time to stop acting like deniers – like the Koch brothers and those addicted to them – have a valid point of view. #Up4Climate

RT Sierra Club ‏@sierraclub: "Climate change is urgent, solvable, human-caused, and real." -Sen. Schatz (@brianschatz) #Up4Climate #ActOnClimate

RT Dana Nuccitelli ‏@dana1981: .@neiltyson tells @CNN: Stop giving ‘equal time to the flat Earthers’ | The Raw Story http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/03/09/neil-degrasse-tyson-tells-cnn-stop-giving-equal-time-to-the-flat-earthers/#.Ux5RJ6uE4Pg.twitter …

RT Ron Wyden ‏@RonWyden: On my way to the Senate floor now to call for action on climate change. Tweet #Up4Climate to let Congress know inaction is not an option.

Denier think tank optimism on climate sensitivity ill-founded: @dana1981 http://www.skepticalscience.com/gwpf-lewis-crock-climate-sensitivity-optimism-ill-founded.html 

RT Kate Sheppard ‏@kate_sheppard: If I had known @InhofePress was going to give a speech, I would have made a bingo card. Al Gore! Climategate! It's cold outside! #Up4Climate

Editorial: Climate change: Weather of Olympian extremes: @guardian http://gu.com/p/3mtd9/tw  

Why Martin Hoerling is off base (in NYT op-ed) on California drought: Open Mind http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/03/10/california-drought/ 

State Dept KeystoneXL Review Assumes 'Global Failure to Address #Climate Change': http://insideclimatenews.org/content/state-dept-keystone-review-assumes-global-failure-address-climate-change … #NoKXL 

RT Andrew Dessler ‏@AndrewDessler: Important paper by Drew Shindell; explains low values of sensitivity from 20th century obs.; bad day to be a skeptic http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2136.html 

EV or not EV? That is (not really) the question

My wife and I got a ride last evening in a Mitsubishi MiEV and were very impressed. It's a small but reasonably roomy 100 percent electric 4-person vehicle, range 50-60 miles, 22 hours to charge (from zero to full) on 110, 7 hours to charge on 220.  Talking with its owner brought out an aspect to those numbers I hadn't considered, which is that if you drive it 20 miles, it can probably be fully charged again overnight because it won't be down to zero.  Duh. Which means, in turn, that if your commute is not too long, you may be able to use it every day for several days ...

Anyway, that prompted a discussion, because my wife had seen a reference somewhere recently to how EVs (electric vehicles) may not be as clean as hybrids, depending on the fuels that the utility system in your region uses to generate electricity. I've also seen this issue raised a number of times, perhaps most prominently in a New York Times article discussing a Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) study on the issue.

I have a beef, not with UCS--which is a great organization--but with the implications that can easily be drawn from such a study, specifically the implication that anyone, anywhere, should feel free to go ahead and buy a gasoline auto if the utility system in the region depends heavily on coal.  Don't do it!

I say not so, and here's why.  The problem with carbon emissions from an EV, such as they are, is not inherent with the EV, it's a problem with the utility system, and a problem that can actually be fixed, by the utility building or purchasing more renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, biomass) power plants.  The problem with carbon emissions from a gas auto is inherent with the auto, and you're investing in a (small) piece of infrastructure that will never get better until it goes to the junkyard at the end of its useful life, 10 to 20 years from now.

The Times article, and the UCS study itself, suggest how easy it is to misread the issue.   The article ends as follows: "'To prevent the worse consequences of global warming,' the report concludes, 'the automotive industry must deliver viable alternatives to the oil-fueled internal combustion engine, i.e., vehicles boasting zero or near-zero emissions.'" (emphasis added)  But what about the utility industry?  It's remarkable that it isn't mentioned, given the subject of the study. More importantly, it's remarkable because using electricity to break into the transportation energy market is a huge potential opportunity for electric utilities to expand their business.  Geez.

(I've had at least one argument on the Web about a closely related topic.  The people involved were very environmentally conscious, and dissing the idea of driving entirely for the same reason, saying that bicycling is the only way to go.  In essence, I told them, "If you want to see gasoline autos for the indefinite future, just keep belittling EVs and that is what you will get.")

Luckily, it turns out that our region (northeastern U.S.) has a relatively low-carbon generating mix, and so an EV tops the best hybrid, which means there is a good chance we will pop for one.  To me, it's a no-brainer, not only because of the reasoning above, but because buying or leasing it helps demonstrate there is a market and sends a message to other drivers who see it around town.

The one (very minor) downside?  Owning an EV will boost our electric bills a tad, just as we are beating them into submission with a backyard solar system.  Still, that's a minor issue, as driving an EV costs roughly 1/4 as much per mile as driving a gasoline auto.